Understanding the impacts of climate change on lamb survival and lambing date in Southern New Zealand

Future variations in temperature, rainfall and stormintensity need to be translated into on-farm metrics understand the impacts on lambing date survival. A lamb survival model based heat loss was developed applied a daily time step present future climate scenarios, at three regions throughout lowerSouth Island representing hill lowland farms. scenarios (2040-2049) were modelled, forecast trends. Changes temperatures from 1990-1999 period 2000-2010 matched or exceeded change predictions global modelling.Predicted increases temperature had little effect Average air over two weeks before four after planned start of ~7ºC every region topography, matching rise spring pasture growth. indicated potential schedule 10 20 d earlier than current practice by 2040, hence liveweight 1.5 5.5kg December 15th may possible. Opportunities as increased promote grass growth help increase pre-summer gain mitigate occurrence summer dry periods.